The output at the supply side continues to decline, and the demand side tends to improve. At the cost side, due to the decline in the price of iron ore, costs have begun to decline. On the whole, under the background of decline in demand for capacity expansion and mismatched demand, the downward trend in the medium term has been established .
Since August, rebar futures have fallen significantly under the influence of multiple factors such as negative macroeconomic conditions, weaker demand and higher-than-expected accumulation of inventory, and the intensified trade situation last weekend has further pushed down prices. Regarding the later price trend, we believe that the downward trend of rebar has been established in the medium term, but there may still be a staged rebound in September.
Since the end of July, the inflection point of steel supply has emerged due to the narrowing of profits of steel mills and the tightening of environmental protection restrictions in various places. As of August 23, the weekly output of rebar fell to 3.519 million tons, a continuous 3 Weeks fell and were the lowest since April. Specifically, the reduction in output was mainly contributed by short-process enterprises, and the production reduction of long-process enterprises was not obvious. Compared with the high point in mid-July, the short-process enterprises reduced their output by 30%, while the long-process enterprises reduced their output by 3.2%. .
The main reason for this phenomenon is the profit difference between the two. At present, short-process enterprises are in a state of continuous loss, while long-process enterprises still have 200-300 profits. Considering the current tight supply of scrap steel, Shagang raised its scrap price by 50 yuan / ton last week, which will further squeeze the profits of electric furnace enterprises and cause their output to continue to decline.
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